A few months back I dedicated a column to a project by Paul Taylor at Pew called "The Next America" that details what the U.S. will look like in 2060 as compared to what it looks like today and what it looked like in 1960. It's an absolutely amazing look at how the long-term demographic trends in the country will play out -- and what it will mean for our politics.
The one data point I keep coming back to -- and was reminded of this morning via this Pew greatest hits post on its "Fact Tank" blog -- is how much older the country will be in 2060 as compared 1960. The average life expectancy in 1960 was just under 70 years old. By 2011, it was 79 years old. What that means, assuming life expectancy continues to grow and birth rates continue to decline, is that what has long been an age pyramid -- there are more young people and fewer old ones -- will turn into an age rectangle.
Here's what that looks like visualized.
What does it mean for politics? Again, here's Taylor: "In the past few elections, the young/old partisan voting gap has been the biggest since the voting age was lowered to 18 in 1972. As recently as the year 2000, there had been no difference in the way young and old in America voted. Now, there's a chasm."
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Take the last two presidential elections. In 2012, Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney 60 percent to 37 percent among 18-29 year olds and lost 56 percent to 44 percent among those 65 and older -- a 35-point gap between how the youngest and oldest voters voted. Four years earlier, Obama won 18-29 year olds 66 percent to 32 percent over Arizona Sen. John McCain and lost voters 60 and older to McCain 51 percent to 47 percent -- a 38-point swing.
The aging of the population then should work to Republicans' benefit -- with two important caveats:
1) As the population gets older, it is getting less and less white even as Republicans struggle more and more to win over non-white voters. In 2010, 64 percent of the U.S. population was white; by 2060 just 43 percent will be.
2) The movement of older voters toward Republicans is a relatively new phenomenon. Al Gore, for example, beat George W. Bush in 2000 among voters older than 60. Bill Clinton won voters 60 and older in 1992 and 1996. Who's to say that recent GOP gains with older voters will continue in perpetuity -- or even into the next decade?
My goal? Live until 2060 so I can see what actually happens. (I'll be a spry 84 in 2060.)
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